For some time now, I have attempted to shed light on the fact that pricing in today’s real estate market will be determined by the concept of ‘supply and demand’. If supply continues to increase and demand softens (or even remains constant) prices will continue to fall. Even the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has acknowledged this to be true.
The supply of inventory in the real estate industry is defined by the current months’ supply of homes that is available for sale. There are no steadfast rules that will apply to every category of housing. However, here is a great guideline by which to go:
1-4 months’ supply creates a sellers’ market where there are not enough homes to satisfy buyer demand. Appreciation is guaranteed.
5-6 months’ supply creates a balanced market where historically home values appreciate at a rate a little greater than inflation.
7-8 months’ supply creates a buyers’ market where the number of homes for sale exceeds the demand. Depreciation follows.
Where do we stand today?
According to NAR’s most recent Existing Sales Report, there is currently a 10.5 months’ supply of homes for sale. We can see, based on the guideline above, we are in a buyers’ market and that prices will continue to soften. The other statistic we must watch is the number of months’ of shadow inventory which will be coming to market.
CoreLogic just released their November report (which covers August). They estimate shadow inventory:
… by calculating the number of properties that are seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders and that are not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs). Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
The report showed that shadow inventory jumped more than 10% in the last year, pushing total unsold inventory to 2.1 million houses.
That represents another 8 months of supply.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some analysts have said CoreLogic estimates look rather low.
Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group, has warned that as many as seven million homes could end up in banks hands unless more aggressive modification regimes are put in place.
Barclays estimates that another 3.76 million homes are either in the foreclosure process or are at least 90 days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.
Bottom Line
Most industry experts are projecting just that – an additional fall in prices of between 5-20%. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic commented:
“The weak demand for housing is significantly increasing the risk of further price declines in the housing market. This is being exacerbated by a significant and growing shadow inventory that is likely to persist for some time due to the highly extended time-to-liquidation that servicers are currently experiencing.”
If you are thinking of selling, give me a call immediately. In most parts of the country, selling sooner may be better than later. I will be glad to give you the exact number of months of inventory for your market area and help you price your home to sell before the shadow inventory or foreclosures hit the market.
Reprinted from Keeping Current Matters Blogsite.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
20,000 Homes Will Sell This Weekend!
There is no doubt that demand for housing has slowed. The National Association of Realtor’s 3rd Quarter Existing Homes Sales Report showed that sales were down in all fifty states and the District of Columbia (3rd quarter vs. the 2nd quarter). The decline was in double digits in all but two states (Nevada and California). Those are the facts.
But let us not allow the facts to get in the way of the truth. The truth is that over 4 million homes will have sold in this country by the end of the year.
That averages out to be over 10,000 houses a day! Every day – 365 days a year!
Houses are selling. The question is will your house be one of the 10,000 that sell today. That is entirely up to you. You and your family can move on with your plans and dreams immediately. You just have to be willing to price the house at what today’s purchaser is willing to pay. Will you be able to sell it for what it would have sold for in the past? Probably not. Will you be able to sell it for the price you had desired? Probably not.
You must weigh the cost of selling today (a reduced profit on your home) against the cost of not getting on with your life. There is no doubt that money is important to everyone, especially today. Being able to follow your plans and dreams is also important however. Don’t allow money to ultimately control that decision.
Decide what is best for you and your family – AND DO IT!!
Reprinted from Keeping Current Matters Blog.
But let us not allow the facts to get in the way of the truth. The truth is that over 4 million homes will have sold in this country by the end of the year.
That averages out to be over 10,000 houses a day! Every day – 365 days a year!
Houses are selling. The question is will your house be one of the 10,000 that sell today. That is entirely up to you. You and your family can move on with your plans and dreams immediately. You just have to be willing to price the house at what today’s purchaser is willing to pay. Will you be able to sell it for what it would have sold for in the past? Probably not. Will you be able to sell it for the price you had desired? Probably not.
You must weigh the cost of selling today (a reduced profit on your home) against the cost of not getting on with your life. There is no doubt that money is important to everyone, especially today. Being able to follow your plans and dreams is also important however. Don’t allow money to ultimately control that decision.
Decide what is best for you and your family – AND DO IT!!
Reprinted from Keeping Current Matters Blog.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
5 Good Reasons To Hire A Real Estate Agent
Should you spend the money on a real estate commission or save that money by selling your home by yourself?
That is a question many home sellers ask themselves. Today, we want to discuss why it is crucial to have a true professional guiding you through the mine field of challenges that exist in the current real estate market.
The housing market today is more challenging than it has ever been and seems to be becoming more difficult each day. What impact will foreclosures have on prices? Which loan products that were available just last month are no longer available? How do you convince perspective purchasers to pull the trigger on an offer when everyone is telling them that they should see another 100 houses before they make a decision? These are tough questions for a trained, experienced professional. The lay person would find it almost impossible to keep abreast of this rapidly evolving industry.
Here are five important reasons to use a real estate professional:
1. Pricing Is Difficult
Just a few years ago, you didn’t have to worry about overpricing your home. If it was too high, all you needed to do was wait as historic appreciation was taking place. The situation is quite different today. With experts calling for another drop in home values, overpricing your property will cost you time. In this market, time costs you money. A professional real estate agent will discuss how increasing inventory could dramatically impact the value of your property in the months to come. They will help you set the right price in today’s market.
2. Negotiating Ability Is Crucial
Buyers today have an almost unlimited supply of homes from which to choose. They realize that puts them in a great negotiating position. Most buyers are now also being represented by an agent. Sellers need to also be represented by a professional expert trained to negotiate real estate contracts.
3. Mortgaging Is Key to the Deal
The biggest impact of the housing market collapse is that lending standards are much stricter today than they were a few short years ago. Rules are constantly changing. Even FHA has gone through a guidelines overhaul in the last several months. You need a real estate expert who has teamed up with a knowledgeable mortgage professional to make sure that the buyer in the deal is in fact capable of obtaining a mortgage. Losing time with an unqualified buyer costs you money in a market prices are falling.
4. Your Family’s Safety
I have always found it puzzling that the same person that will lock every door and window and set the alarm today will then allow total strangers into their house tomorrow. The real estate industry trains its practitioners to take steps to protect themselves and their clients. Take advantage of putting a person between you and the person calling on an ad or yard sign.
5. You Probably Have More Important Things to Do
Selling a home could turn into a full time job. Learning the necessary disclosures, coordinating the dates of your closings, dealing with a challenge regarding your appraisal and re-negotiating the offer after an engineer’s report are just a few of the concerns you may face. You would probably be better of spending that time with the items important to you and your family and leaving the challenges to your agent.
Bottom Line
To make sure the sale of your home is handled professionally – hire a trained professional. In the long run, you will wind-up with more money in your pocket and have less challenges with the move.
Copied From KMC Blog by Permission
That is a question many home sellers ask themselves. Today, we want to discuss why it is crucial to have a true professional guiding you through the mine field of challenges that exist in the current real estate market.
The housing market today is more challenging than it has ever been and seems to be becoming more difficult each day. What impact will foreclosures have on prices? Which loan products that were available just last month are no longer available? How do you convince perspective purchasers to pull the trigger on an offer when everyone is telling them that they should see another 100 houses before they make a decision? These are tough questions for a trained, experienced professional. The lay person would find it almost impossible to keep abreast of this rapidly evolving industry.
Here are five important reasons to use a real estate professional:
1. Pricing Is Difficult
Just a few years ago, you didn’t have to worry about overpricing your home. If it was too high, all you needed to do was wait as historic appreciation was taking place. The situation is quite different today. With experts calling for another drop in home values, overpricing your property will cost you time. In this market, time costs you money. A professional real estate agent will discuss how increasing inventory could dramatically impact the value of your property in the months to come. They will help you set the right price in today’s market.
2. Negotiating Ability Is Crucial
Buyers today have an almost unlimited supply of homes from which to choose. They realize that puts them in a great negotiating position. Most buyers are now also being represented by an agent. Sellers need to also be represented by a professional expert trained to negotiate real estate contracts.
3. Mortgaging Is Key to the Deal
The biggest impact of the housing market collapse is that lending standards are much stricter today than they were a few short years ago. Rules are constantly changing. Even FHA has gone through a guidelines overhaul in the last several months. You need a real estate expert who has teamed up with a knowledgeable mortgage professional to make sure that the buyer in the deal is in fact capable of obtaining a mortgage. Losing time with an unqualified buyer costs you money in a market prices are falling.
4. Your Family’s Safety
I have always found it puzzling that the same person that will lock every door and window and set the alarm today will then allow total strangers into their house tomorrow. The real estate industry trains its practitioners to take steps to protect themselves and their clients. Take advantage of putting a person between you and the person calling on an ad or yard sign.
5. You Probably Have More Important Things to Do
Selling a home could turn into a full time job. Learning the necessary disclosures, coordinating the dates of your closings, dealing with a challenge regarding your appraisal and re-negotiating the offer after an engineer’s report are just a few of the concerns you may face. You would probably be better of spending that time with the items important to you and your family and leaving the challenges to your agent.
Bottom Line
To make sure the sale of your home is handled professionally – hire a trained professional. In the long run, you will wind-up with more money in your pocket and have less challenges with the move.
Copied From KMC Blog by Permission
Monday, November 8, 2010
Quantitative Easing
The economy is still struggling. Employment numbers are not improving. The housing market is stagnant. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided that a new form of stimulus was necessary to kick start the job market and the economy. They decided to ‘put more money’ into the market. The term for the new stimulus package is ‘quantitative easing’ (QE2).
We want to take a look at what happened, what it means to the economy and ultimately what impact it will have on the residential real estate market.
What Happened?
The Washington Post reported on the FOMC’s actions:
The FOMC decided this week that, with unemployment high and inflation very low, further support to the economy is needed. With short-term interest rates already about as low as they can go, the FOMC agreed to deliver that support by purchasing additional longer-term securities, as it did in 2008 and 2009. The FOMC intends to buy an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by mid-2011 and will continue to reinvest repayments of principal on its holdings of securities, as it has been doing since August.
What Does This Mean for the Economy?
In the same article mentioned above, The Washington Post explained:
This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.
The Impact on Real Estate
Patrick F. Stone is president and CEO of Williston Financial Group, in an Inman News article, explained:
We have seen meaningful increases in commodity prices and stock prices in anticipation of QE2. With the implementation of QE2, and the hoped-for inflation, house prices will stabilize and — depending on the degree of impact and length of impact — housing inflation is a logical byproduct. Any meaningful housing appreciation will have a tremendously positive impact on the economy.
The U.S. News and World Report on their Money Blog addressed the issue of what opportunities now exist because of the FOMC action.
Interest rates have never been lower. It seems that just about every week mortgage rates set a new low. And this week the Fed is expected to undertake a second round of quantitative easing, QE2 for short, by buying up more government debt. As a result, incredibly low interest rates may go even lower.
But low rates don’t do us any good if we fail to take advantage of them.
The report went on to give the five ways one could take advantage of lower rates. Number one? Buy a home:
The combination of low rates and falling real estate prices make for a perfect time to buy a home. Particularly for first time buyers, there may never be a better time to take the plunge into homeownership than over the next year. Some say home values may still fall over the next year, so knowing exactly when to buy can be a bit of gamble. But locking in incredibly low rates on a 30-year mortgage is a great way to reap the benefits of the current interest rate environment.
Bottom Line
Interest rates will remain low and inflation will increase slowly if the Fed’s actions work as hoped. After that, home prices will appreciate and interest rates without government intervention will return to historic norms. If you are looking to purchase, now is the time. If you can wait 12-18 months to sell, perhaps it makes sense to wait.
If you are looking to sell in the next several months, we don’t believe the impact of the government actions will take place within that time frame. Please call me to discuss your options.
We want to take a look at what happened, what it means to the economy and ultimately what impact it will have on the residential real estate market.
What Happened?
The Washington Post reported on the FOMC’s actions:
The FOMC decided this week that, with unemployment high and inflation very low, further support to the economy is needed. With short-term interest rates already about as low as they can go, the FOMC agreed to deliver that support by purchasing additional longer-term securities, as it did in 2008 and 2009. The FOMC intends to buy an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by mid-2011 and will continue to reinvest repayments of principal on its holdings of securities, as it has been doing since August.
What Does This Mean for the Economy?
In the same article mentioned above, The Washington Post explained:
This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.
The Impact on Real Estate
Patrick F. Stone is president and CEO of Williston Financial Group, in an Inman News article, explained:
We have seen meaningful increases in commodity prices and stock prices in anticipation of QE2. With the implementation of QE2, and the hoped-for inflation, house prices will stabilize and — depending on the degree of impact and length of impact — housing inflation is a logical byproduct. Any meaningful housing appreciation will have a tremendously positive impact on the economy.
The U.S. News and World Report on their Money Blog addressed the issue of what opportunities now exist because of the FOMC action.
Interest rates have never been lower. It seems that just about every week mortgage rates set a new low. And this week the Fed is expected to undertake a second round of quantitative easing, QE2 for short, by buying up more government debt. As a result, incredibly low interest rates may go even lower.
But low rates don’t do us any good if we fail to take advantage of them.
The report went on to give the five ways one could take advantage of lower rates. Number one? Buy a home:
The combination of low rates and falling real estate prices make for a perfect time to buy a home. Particularly for first time buyers, there may never be a better time to take the plunge into homeownership than over the next year. Some say home values may still fall over the next year, so knowing exactly when to buy can be a bit of gamble. But locking in incredibly low rates on a 30-year mortgage is a great way to reap the benefits of the current interest rate environment.
Bottom Line
Interest rates will remain low and inflation will increase slowly if the Fed’s actions work as hoped. After that, home prices will appreciate and interest rates without government intervention will return to historic norms. If you are looking to purchase, now is the time. If you can wait 12-18 months to sell, perhaps it makes sense to wait.
If you are looking to sell in the next several months, we don’t believe the impact of the government actions will take place within that time frame. Please call me to discuss your options.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Where Will Rates Go?
Almost every mortgage expert predicted that interest rates would skyrocket earlier this year as the Fed backed out of purchasing mortgage-backed-securities. They were wrong and most have refrained from making any new projections ever since. Last week, our own friend and adviser, Dean Hartman, said they may go lower. This week, Market Watch reported on the Mortgage Brokers’ Association’s (MBA) projections:
Mortgage rates may be as low as they’ll get — rates are on course to rise, slowly moving toward 5% by the end of next year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s economic forecast.
It seems that the MBA is in line with the projections of the National Association of Realtors who also believes that rates will increase over the next several quarters. Here are the comparative projections:
NAR MBA
2011 2nd Qtr. 4.7 4.8
2011 3rd Qtr. 5.1 5.0
2011 4th Qtr. 5.4 5.1
2012 1st Qtr. 5.6 5.2
2012 2nd Qtr. 5.8 5.4
Bottom Line
If you are thinking about buying a home but are waiting for prices to soften further, be careful that the ‘cost’ of the house isn’t heading upward because of interest rates.
Mortgage rates may be as low as they’ll get — rates are on course to rise, slowly moving toward 5% by the end of next year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s economic forecast.
It seems that the MBA is in line with the projections of the National Association of Realtors who also believes that rates will increase over the next several quarters. Here are the comparative projections:
NAR MBA
2011 2nd Qtr. 4.7 4.8
2011 3rd Qtr. 5.1 5.0
2011 4th Qtr. 5.4 5.1
2012 1st Qtr. 5.6 5.2
2012 2nd Qtr. 5.8 5.4
Bottom Line
If you are thinking about buying a home but are waiting for prices to soften further, be careful that the ‘cost’ of the house isn’t heading upward because of interest rates.
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