Another great month. So are we
headed into a Seller’s market? Let’s look at some of the numbers that help
support that claim.
We have gone 7 months with our
list to sales price ratio above 95%. Our April average sold price exceeded last
month as well as last year by 2.8%. We have to go back to 2007 to find
comparable numbers. April’s average sold price increased from March by 1.8%. On
May 1st we saw an increase of 55 homes in our listing inventory; we
have 3,765 homes on the market as of May 1st. This adjusted our
month’s supply of homes for sale with just over 7.0 months. Our pending Index
is approaching 1,300, the last time we were over 1,300 units was in August of
2007.
We need these numbers to go lower.
In April sellers paid concessions in about 32% of the transactions, the average
concession amount is $3,152. Our average days on the market increased to 136
days. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very
low, 11.8% of April sold homes.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
(FRM) averaged 3.42% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending May 9,
2013; we have stayed under 4.0% for over 1 year. With smaller inventories,
sellers getting 95% of their asking price, shorter number of days that homes
are on the market we should see a very good spring. It is possible that we
won’t be seeing 3.25% mortgage rates again. You can see in the Mortgage rates
chart that rates were at 3.40% to 3.41% toward the end of April. If you were
considering buying a home now is the time as our basic factors continue to
improve, this just further enhances the opportunities for buyers – great
property deals as well as very attractive mortgage rates, now if ever there was
a great time to buy we can say it is now. Call me so I can show you or your
clients how they can get the benefit of these rates. Have a great week and let
me know what I can do to help you and your clients.
Despite all the media
comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential
mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment;
they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral
and Character.
Listing Inventory
We saw a 55 unit
increase in our listing inventory for April over the month of March. We are
about 329 units under May 1, 2012, down about 8.0%
from last year. A year ago our average list price was $360,001 this year we are
up by 2.0%. We currently have 3,765 single
family homes for sale in our MLS as of May 1st. The average list
price of $367,136 is up by $9,318 from last month. January was the low point of
our listing inventory and we are now in the building stage of our listings.
During our Spring season we usually see big increases in our listing inventory.
Monthly Average Sold Price
April average sold price
($225,618) shows an increase of 1.8% from last month
($221,584) and up by 2.8% from April 2012 ($219,419). Our
monthly average sold price is up $4,034 from last month and up
$6,199 from April 2012. April average sold price is up 2.5%
from our yearend (2012) sales price of $220,041.
Monthly Sold Units
We are up 46 sold
units from March 2013 and up 82 units from April 2012. This
April we are up 9.4% in units sold compared to March 2013.
This is our best April in sold units in over 6 years. Our April sold units have
ranged from a low of 332 in 2009 and we had 591 units in March 2007. We
continue our positive trend of upward sales.
Average Sold Price Year to
Date
Year over year our year to date
numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $
186,137
2004 year end average sale price $
210,048
2005 year end average sale price $
254,080
2006 year end average sale price $
264,498
2007 year end average sale price $
273,408
2008 year end average sale price
$256,510
2009 year end average sale price
$235,116
2010 year end average sale price
$230,459
2011 year end average sale price
$221,848
2012 year end average sale price
$220,041
Our current Year to Date average
sold price - $220,803 about .3% up from Year
End 2012.
Median Sold Price
Our Median sold price increased
this month by 4.2% from last month. Our
national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price continues its jagged
path. The slight decrease in our median sold price in March moves us back up
based on the National Median. On a National scale the economy is trying to
improve. You should also note that on a national basis the median peaked out
about 2 months ago. Ours should continue to improve as we go into the spring.
Last month while we decreased in our median, NAR had an increase and we carried
a slight increase in April ourselves. The last 3 months we have cycled with the
National Median.
Pending
Pending Sales – A sale is listed
as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet
closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I
am counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts in my total pending
sales. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how
they chart out. Our pending index was very consistent in 2012 with the pending
index staying above 1,000 units for about 8 months. 2013 has already started
strong with our pending index above 1,000 units since Feb 1st 2013.
We have had an increase in pending units of 46% since Jan 1, 2013. We crossed
over the 1,200 current pending units on April 11th. We have
maintained the last 30 days with the pending index between 1,229 and currently
we have 1,293 pending sales as of 5/11/13. The last time we were over 1,200
pending units was 9/6/2007. From the agents and managers I have talked with we
are seeing an increase in showings and contracts, and pending contracts proves
this to be accurate. Good job
Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in April, 536 divided by the
current listing inventory, 3,765 gives us a 7.0 month supply
of single family homes. This is a decrease of .6 months from last month. I
anticipate we have a chance to see this get lower this spring. With rates where
they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down even more. We are
hearing from agents about more multiple offers as the inventory shrinks.
List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $235,380
and the average sold price is $225,618 for April, which gives
us a 95.9% list to sold price ratio – this is the seventh
month we are above the magic 95% list to sales ratio – Great Job.
Seller Concessions – We had 32.1% of sold properties report
a sales concession for April, an increase of 2.1% from last
month. We want this number to go lower. The average concession was $3,152
Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties are
now at 136 for April a 4 day increase from last month. Only 11.8%
of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month
of April.
Rolling 12 months
Our rolling 12 months gives us a
better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a month that jumps up and
down. This is the second month our rolling numbers are ahead of last year in
both units and sold price. When we look at May 1st, 2012 to April
30, 2013 we have 5,905 sold units and when we compare the year
prior May 1st, 2011 to April 30, 2012 we have a 1,125
unit gain (4,776 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for
average sold price we see that we are up by .5%. So the dates
of 5/1/2012 to 4/30/2013 we have an average sold price of $222,016
while from 5/1/2011 to 4/30/2012 we had an average sold price $220,993.
Carolina & Kure Beach
There are currently 342 single
family homes for sale and this represents a change of 5 units from April 1,
2013 and it represents about 9.2% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list
price is $386,547 and a increase of about $10,425 from April 1, 2013. In April
there were 50 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have an
6.8 month supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold
price for the month of April was $297,337 and is up by $3,283 from April 2012.
Our year to date is ahead of last year this time with the average sold price of
$284,376 for April 2013 and $279,802 for April 2012 a gain of 1.6%. The rolling
12 months for Carolina Beach had 393 units vs. 322 the previous year. The
average sales price went up by $1,518. Good Job and it fits in with WRAR
overall.
This data was pulled on May
11, 2013, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of
REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through April 30, 2013.
The Market
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage
Market Survey(R), showing average fixed mortgage rates reversing their recent
trend and moving higher for the first time in six weeks amid April's better
than expected employment report.
News Facts
·
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.42 percent
with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 9, 2013, up from last week
when it averaged 3.35 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged
3.83 percent.
·
15-year FRM this week averaged 2.61 percent with an average
0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.56 percent. A year ago at this
time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.05 percent.
Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
"Fixed mortgage rates edged
up following a solid employment report for April. The economy gained 165,000 new jobs on
net last month, more than the market consensus forecast and the largest monthly
increase this year. On top of that, revisions added 114,000 more jobs to
February and March as well. All of these factors allowed the unemployment rate
to fall to 7.5 percent in April, the lowest since December 2008."
30 Year Fixed Rates
Some comments from the
Peanut Gallery:
Over the last several months we
have had the press telling us all about the highs and lows of the stock market,
well here are other markets we have not heard much about and how they are
doing.
Helium was up
Feathers were down
Paper was stationary
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in
light trading
Knives were up sharply
Cows steered into a bull market
Pencils lost a few points
Hiking equipment was trailing
Elevators rose, while escalators
continued their slow decline
Weights were up in heavy trading
Light switches were off
Mining equipment hit rock bottom
Diapers remain unchanged
Shipping lines stayed at an even
keel
The market for raisins dried up
Coca Cola fizzled
Caterpillar stock inched up a bit
Sun peaked at midday
Balloon prices were inflated
And, Scott Tissue touched a new
bottom
I offer these key statistics to
keep you informed as to how our market is changing. With 25 years of real
estate sales and management and finance in my background I am able to evaluate
the current conditions and provide you with accurate data. With key information
from your clients I can evaluate their needs and offer them the best plan for
their current mortgage. With our current “Buyer Ready” program we can shorten
the due diligence period and take the qualifying fear away from the client.
Call me today for a worksheet.
Cunningham & Company is a full
service Mortgage Banker - we handle everything in house. We do first time
buyers, USDA, FHA and VA loans, Conventional and Jumbo Loans, 100% financing
and we have a large selection of adjustable rate loans. Call me today with my
background in real estate and the resources of Cunningham & Company working
together... you can't miss. A loan in the crowd.
David
Flory NMLS #91592
Mortgage Consultant
Cunningham & Company
Mortgage Bankers
910-352-8273 cell
910-313-0045 office
