What Does Warren Buffet Think About Buying A Home?

What Does Warren Buffet Think About Buying A Home?

Warren Buffet is seen by many as the greatest investor of our time. When he speaks, people listen. Like anyone else in his position of influence, he is criticized by some for using his bullhorn to promote his own business agendas at times. That makes it very interesting when we occasionally learn of how he privately advises those closest to him.

Such a situation occurred this week. Debbie Bosanek, Warren Buffet’s secretary of 37 years, recently purchased a second home in Surprise, Arizona.

In an article in the Omaha World Herald, Mrs. Bosanek discussed her reasons for purchasing a second home and the personal advice she received from Mr. Buffet.

“I just thought it was time to buy a home. Warren tells me that it will be the best opportunity in my lifetime. Mortgage rates are low and prices have dropped dramatically…I share Warren’s view about the future of America, and we believe that our country will do just fine. I’m happy to make this investment.”

The greatest investor of the last century privately has told the people closest to him that buying a home right now “will be the best opportunity in [their] lifetime”.

That’s good enough for me. How about you?



Reprinted from KCM Blog Site

Where Are People Moving To and From?

Where Are People Moving To and From?

InfoGraphic

Why Deals Die

I have seen estimates stating that 29% of deals that go to contract and require a mortgage, don’t close. That number boggles my mind. It means that even after a buyer and seller come to terms on a sale (not an easy feat these days), 3 out of 10 transactions fall apart. What are some of the more common reasons?

§ Appraisal issues – In many markets, we are still seeing declining values. Appraisers are in a difficult position, and with so many transactions (including seller’s concessions to assist buyers with closing costs) values aren’t always coming in at sales prices.

§ Short Sales not being approved by the current lender – With so many sellers owing more than their home is worth, buyers’ proposals need to be sanctioned by the lender (who will be receiving less than they are owed). Some of the offers are too low, but often, the lender isn’t local and they really don’t know what the property is worth today.

§ Bad pre-approvals from the loan officer – Today, loan officers who are not reviewing tax returns, analyzing bank statements, and asking for detailed explanations and documentation on credit blemishes, are truly hurting the customers. Issuing pre-approvals based on the representations of the customer is reckless and a cause for dismay later.

§ A lack of transparency – Whether it’s a seller or agent not disclosing property issues, or a buyer trying to sneak things by an underwriter, too many people think they can cut corners. That is not the world we live in anymore. Everything is uncovered. Being honest in the beginning, gives you the best chance to overcome obstacles.

It is clear by the numbers that closing loans can be more difficult today. However, with proper planning and integrity, many of the challenges can be dealt with early and successfully. Agents documenting values of the homes, loan officers doing complete reviews of the loan profile up-front, and everyone telling the truth helps get deals to a successful conclusion and avoids horror stories.

Another Bear Turns Bullish on Real Estate

Two weeks ago, I posted When the Prophet Says Buy – BUY! In that post, I explained that a major bear on housing, John R. Talbott, is now bullish on the real estate market. Last week, another bear turned bull.

Chris Thornberg, a former UCLA economist and a founding principal of Beacon Economics, was very skeptical of the housing market in 2007. However, in an article by the Orange County Register on January 13^th, he is quoted as saying that now is:

“…a great time to buy a home…If you’ve been thinking about buying a condo in Vegas or buying a condo in Miami, buy now.”

We started off 2012 with two of the biggest bears on housing converting to bulls and telling
us to BUY NOW! It might just be time to buy!!

What Value Does Your Loan Officer Add?

For the longest time, I have listened to loan officers talk about why people should do business with them; and 95% of the time their presentations boil down to three things – price, product, and service. On the pricing front, they talk about low interest rates and/or closing costs; on the product side, they position themselves as experts in a particular loan program (like a 203K or reverse mortgage); and on the service side, they discuss turnaround time or how available they are.

Let me just say that, in today’s marketplace, virtually every lender (and therefore, every loan officer) has very similar pricing, pretty much all the same products, and service is difficult to prove until you give them a loan to work on. My point being is that the changing lending landscape (tougher underwriting guidelines, loan officer licensing, stricter appraisals, and such) has eliminated virtually 70% of loan officers in America. The remaining people have been vetted and represent a very high quality group of professionals. (Not that there aren’t always a few bad apples, but there truly are very few.)

So, when borrowers shop for loans on the old “price/product/service model”, how does a consumer differentiate between loan officers?

§ Ask for referrals – If you have a friend, co-worker, or family member who had a good lending experience, ask who they used. Talk to people who deal with multiple lenders (real estate agents, attorneys, accountants, etc.) and leverage their comparative experience into making good choices. Loan officers who earn referrals typically go beyond price/product/service.

§ Seek out a mortgage advisor – Even today, with limited loan programs, there are many factors to consider when choosing the right mortgage. Your future income, the length of time you expect to be in the home, and your risk tolerance should be discussed before ruling out adjustable rate mortgages, for example.

§ Look for transparency – Demand a lender who freely and competently discusses rates and likely rate movements. Don’t buy into the idea that rates are conjured up in a mysterious way. Rates are derived by activities in the bond market and your loan officer should be able to explain, in layman’s terms, the factors that affect rates and upcoming events and economic reports, as well as, the most likely impact they will have.

§ Accessibility of information – Are you looking for printed materials and/or videos to guide you through the process? How about online workshops or home buying seminars?

§ Seek out a resource – You may need other professionals when buying a home (from insurance people, to home improvement people, to legal help). A good loan officer has a network of high quality referral partners to help you.

Many of the criteria for choosing a loan officer are less tangible than the old “price/product/service model”, but frankly, they may prove more valuable over time.

Feel free to give me a call and I will gladly provide you with a list of proven loan officers that my clients have used in the past.

Where Are House Prices Headed in 2012?

There is no shortage of opinions as to where home prices are headed in 2012. From Clear Capital’s expectation that prices will show a ‘slight uptick’ this year to Fitch’s projection that prices ‘will fall another 13 percent’, there seems to be no consensus as to where real estate values are headed. How can there be such a disparity of opinion among industry experts? Prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand and there are many unanswered questions regarding both of these components.

Questions about Demand

Will this be the year that the 5.9 million adults between the ages of 25 and 34 that are still living with their parents decide to purchase a home of their own?

With mortgage payments lower than rent payments in the majority of the country, will first time buyers finally decide it makes more financial sense to buy rather than rent?

Will the baby boomers take advantage of the great deals available and start purchasing vacation and retirement homes?

Will investors continue to purchase large quantities of distressed properties?

Will hedge funds negotiate a deal with the banks for bulk purchases of foreclosures?

Questions about Supply

Will 2012 be the year that builders again increase inventories of newly constructed homes?

Will baby boomers put their primary residences up for sale and relocate to their retirement destinations?

Will 2012 be the year that the shadow inventory of foreclosures finally makes its way to market?

If prices depreciate, it will force more homes into a negative equity situation. Will this create another surge in short sales and foreclosures?

Will the government put together a plan to convert large numbers of foreclosures into rental properties?

Bottom Line

With so many unanswered questions regarding both the demand for housing and supply of properties, it is very difficult to determine where prices will be at the end of the year.  Please give me a call and we can discuss pricing and where values are headed in our area.

When the Prophet Says Buy - BUY!

John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a bestselling author and economic consultant. When it comes to the housing market he is also a prophet. When housing prices started to skyrocket in 2003, he published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market correctly warning us that a real estate bubble was forming. Then in January 2006, he called the absolute peak of home prices in the US by releasing a new book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble.

Mr. Talbott, the person who accurately predicted the housing bubble and its bust, now has a new prediction – IT IS THE TIME TO BUY A HOME! In a recent article, Homes – Buy Now!, Talbott simply explains:

“I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt.”

He goes on to explain that his conclusion is based on four different metrics, all of which favor buying today:

§ Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During the Bubble

§ Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs

§ Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents

§ Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms

Bottom Line

If the person who called the real estate bubble and its bust says now is the time to buy, we believe it is time to buy.

5 Real Estate Trends to Look For in 2012

Predicting trends during the most volatile housing market in American real estate history is no easy task. We strongly believe these are the five real estate items we should keep an eye on in 2012:

1. Buyers Will Return

In 2011, a lack of consumer confidence in the overall economy dramatically impacted the housing market. Buyers were afraid to make a purchasing decision on any big ticket item. By the end of 2011, consumer confidence began to return and sales increased. Economic conditions will continue to improve throughout 2012 and consumer sentiment will solidify. Once that happens, home buyers will realize that now is the time to buy.

2. Foreclosures Will Increase

The ‘shadow inventory’ of foreclosures which has been growing since the robo-signing challenges of late 2010 will finally be introduced to the market. Distressed properties sell at discounted prices. They will impact the housing values of the non-distressed homes in the area.

3. Prices Will Soften

As more and more foreclosures come to market, there will be greater downward pressure on the values of houses in the region. Foreclosures impact values of non-distressed properties in two ways:

§ They will eat up some of the buyer demand in the market.

§ They will impact the appraisal on ALL transactions in the area.

An increase in foreclosures will have a negative impact on values. This will cause more homes to be underwater.

4. Short Sales Will Increase

As mentioned above, we strongly believe that home prices will soften through at least the first half of 2012. Falling prices will force more homeowners into a position of negative equity. Negative equity is one of the triggers that cause people to strategically default on their mortgage obligations. If this happens, there could be an increase in the number of foreclosures. However, we predict that banks will take preventative measures which will help many of these homes avoid foreclosure by easing the requirements in the short sale process for both homeowners and real estate professionals.

5. Great Agents Will Be VERY Successful

Real Estate professionals who have invested the money, time and energy to truly understand what is happening and why it is happening will separate themselves from their competition and do very well this year.

Those who take that next step of learning how to simply and effectively communicate the market to their clients will be seen as industry leaders. These experts will dominate their markets.