Each month, David Flory, Mortgage Consultant with Cunningham & Co Mortgage Bankers does an excellent report on the New Hanover County real estate market.  Many people are not into the detail that David goes into, however there are those of us that like detail.  It is for them that I add this report to my blog.  If you'd like more details, please send me an email to joyce@intracoastalrealty.com or give me a call at (910) 617-7654.

Thank you David for an excellent report!

May 2013 MLS Report

“Who let the dogs out? Who, who, who, who – Who let the dogs out? Who, who, who, who” – now imagine sitting in a football stadium with 75,000 fellow Realtors and the announcers give you the results of last month’s sales figures. These are numbers to celebrate and be proud of.

Highest monthly average sales price since May of 2009 - $248,726

Highest monthly median price since May of 2009 - $190,000

Highest number of monthly sold homes since August of 2007 – 635 homes

Highest pending activity since August of 2007 – 1,364 homes

With such a great month let’s look at how it all breaks down. We are in our 8^th month with our list to sales price above 95%. The average sold price for May exceeded last month by 10.1% and last year by 16.6%. Our listing inventory only grew by 3 units from last month, while the average list price increased by $12,661. Our pending index is at 1,364 units as of 6/10/13, the highest it has been since August of 2007. In May sellers paid concessions in about 29.6% of the transactions, the average concession amount is $3,400. Our average days on the market decreased to 133 days. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 11.8% of May sold homes.

Mortgage rates have decided it is time to start rising again, the biggest increase we have seen in a couple of years. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.91% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending June 6, 2013; we have stayed under 4.0% for over 1 year. With smaller inventories, sellers getting 95% of their asking price, shorter number of days that homes are on the market we have seen a very good spring. You can see in the Mortgage rates chart that rates were at 3.40% to 3.41% toward the end of April and now we are .50% higher. Are we headed into a Seller’s market? The number of sold homes for May vs. the current inventory takes us below the magic 6 month supply to 5.9 months, however most of our peak months take place between May thru July. It seems that most of our comparisons go back to 2007. If you were considering buying a home now is the time as our basic factors continue to improve, this just further enhances the opportunities for buyers – great property deals as well as very attractive mortgage rates, now if ever there was a great time to buy we can say it is now. Call me so I can show you or your clients how they can get the benefit of these rates. Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients.

Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character.

Listing Inventory

We saw a 3 unit increase in our listing inventory for May over the month of April. We are about 297 units under June 1, 2012, down about 7.3% from last year. A year ago our average list price was $365,988 this year we are up by 3.4. We currently have 3,768 single family homes for sale in our MLS as of June 1^st. The average list price of $379,797 is up by $12,661 from last month. January was the low point of our listing inventory and we are now in the building stage of our listings. Typically we are done with our major growth in listing inventory; a low inventory will make it difficult to find that “perfect home” for your buyer.

 

Monthly Average Sold Price

May average sold price ($248,726) shows an increase of 10.1% from last month ($213,393) and up by 16.6% from May 2012 ($213,393). Our monthly average sold price is up $22,730 from last month and up $35,333 from May 2012. May average sold price is up 13.0% from our yearend (2012) sales price of $220,158.  

Monthly Sold Units

We are up 90 sold units from April 2013 and up 104 units from May 2012. This May we are up 16.5% in units sold compared to April 2013. This is our best May in sold units in over 6 years. Our May sold units have ranged from a low of 375 in 2009 and we had 654 units in May 2007. We continue our positive trend of upward sales. In just a quick analysis we had 49 homes that sold for more than $500,000, while last month that number was 29 homes, in March it was 32 homes and in Feb it was 22 homes. This helped our average sales price increase.

Average Sold Price Year to Date

Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.

2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137

2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048

2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080

2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498

2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408

2008 year end average sale price $256,510

2009 year end average sale price $235,116

2010 year end average sale price $230,459

2011 year end average sale price $221,848

2012 year end average sale price $220,158

Our current Year to Date average sold price - $228,296 about 13.0% up from Year End 2012.

Median Sold Price

Our Median sold price increased this month by 7.3% from last month. Our national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price continues its jagged path. The slight decrease in our median sold price in March moves us back up based on the National Median. On a National scale the economy is trying to improve. Ours should continue to improve as we go into the summer. The last 3 months we have cycled with the National Median we just seem to be a month behind the national numbers.

Pending

Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I am counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts in my total pending sales. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. Our pending index was very consistent in 2012 with the pending index staying above 1,000 units for about 8 months. 2013 has already started strong with our pending index above 1,000 units since Feb 1^st 2013. We crossed over the 1,200 current pending units on April 11^th. We crossed over the 1,300 pending units on May 23^rd. The last time we were over 1,300 pending units was 8/7/2007. From the agents and managers I have talked with we are seeing an increase in showings and contracts, and pending contracts proves this to be accurate. Good job

Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in May, 635 divided by the current listing inventory, 3,768 gives us a 5.9 month supply of single family homes. This is a decrease of 1.1 months from last month. I anticipate we have a chance to see this get lower this summer. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down even more. We are hearing from agents about more multiple offers as the inventory shrinks.

List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $259,299 and the average sold price is $248,726 for May, which gives us a 95.9% list to sold price ratio – this is the eighth month we are above the magic 95% list to sales ratio – Great Job.

Seller Concessions – We had 29.6% of sold properties report a sales concession for May, a decrease of 2.5% from last month. We want this number to go lower. The average concession was $3,400

Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties are now at 133 for May a 3 day decrease from last month. Only 11.8% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of May.

Rolling 12 months

Our rolling 12 months gives us a better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a month that jumps up and down. This is the third month our rolling numbers are ahead of last year in both units and sold price. When we look at June 1^st, 2012 to May 31, 2013 we have 6,029 sold units and when we compare the year prior June 1^st, 2011 to May 31, 2012 we have a 1,141 unit gain (4,888 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are up by 2.5%. So the dates of 6/1/2012 to 5/31/2013 we have an average sold price of $225,787 while from 6/1/2011 to 5/31/2012 we had an average sold price $220,316.

Carolina & Kure Beach

There are currently 334 single family homes for sale and this represents a change of 8 units from May 1, 2013 and it represents about 8.9% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $387,107 and an increase of about $560 from May 1, 2013. In May there were 39 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have an 8.5 month supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold price for the month of May was $282,521 and is down by $15,214 from May 2012. Our year to date is behind the average sold price of $284,893 for 2012 and at $283,924 for 2013. The rolling 12 months for Carolina Beach average sold price is $282,720 vs. $277,495 the previous year. Good Job and it fits in with WRAR overall.

This data was pulled on June 10, 2013, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through May 31, 2013.

The Market

Mortgage Rates Continue Climbing Higher

Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, showing fixed mortgage rates climbing higher for the fifth consecutive week on concerns the Federal Reserve may slow its bond purchases amid a strengthening economy. This marks the first time the average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage has gone above 3 percent since the week of May 24th of last year.

News Facts

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.91 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 6, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.67 percent.
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.03 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.94 percent.

Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

"Continuing market concerns that the Federal Reserve may slow its bond purchases amid a strengthening economy added upward pressure on mortgage rates this week. In its June 5th regional economic conditions report, known as the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve noted that overall economic activity increased at a modest to moderate pace over April and May in all its districts except for Dallas which indicated strong economic growth. In addition, pending home sales rose in April to its fastest pace since April 2010 and May's consumer sentiment was revised upwards to its highest reading since July 2007."

30 Year Fixed Rates

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes have been in the news with a lot of residential data. Just what does this index offer?

• Over 6,000 indexes covering states, counties, metros and ZIP codes across the U.S.
• 30 year home price forecasts for all indexes
• Custom Index set for Standard & Poor’s indices

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes help securities investors, mortgage banks, servicing operations, and government agencies assess property valuations and manage risk, mitigate losses, and control appraisal quality. They include the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, Default Correction Factors, and Home Price Forecasts—which help:

• Track residential real estate trends
• Manage price risk within specific U.S. markets
• Value loan portfolio collateral
• Estimate default probabilities and loss severity within specific markets
• Determine firm capital sufficiency

You can go the site and get some real specific residential reports.

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes. Click link above to view this info and other top markets.

Some comments from the Peanut Gallery:

In a dark and hazy room, peering into a crystal ball, the Mystic delivered grave news: “There’s no easy way to tell you this, so I’ll just be blunt. Prepare yourself to be a widow. Your husband will die a violent and horrible death this year.”

Visibly shaken, Laura stared at the woman’s lined face, then at the single flickering candle, then down at her hands. She took a few deep breaths to compose herself and to stop her mind racing. She simply had to know.

She met the Fortune Teller’s gaze, steadied her voice and asked, “And will I be acquitted?”

 

I offer these key statistics to keep you informed as to how our market is changing. With 25 years of real estate sales and management and finance in my background I am able to evaluate the current conditions and provide you with accurate data. With key information from your clients I can evaluate their needs and offer them the best plan for their current mortgage. With our current “Buyer Ready” program we can shorten the due diligence period and take the qualifying fear away from the client. Call me today for a worksheet.

Cunningham & Company is a full service Mortgage Banker - we handle everything in house. We do first time buyers, USDA, FHA and VA loans, Conventional and Jumbo Loans, 100% financing and we have a large selection of adjustable rate loans. Call me today with my background in real estate and the resources of Cunningham & Company working together... you can't miss. A loan in the crowd.

·         "Who Let the Dogs Out?" is a "song" written and originally recorded by Anslem Douglas (titled "Doggie") for the Trinidad and Tobago Carnival season of 1998.

 

 

David Flory NMLS #91592

 

Mortgage Consultant

Cunningham & Company Mortgage Bankers

910-352-8273 cell

910-313-0045 office