Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed?

I am often asked where I think mortgage rates are headed over the next year. The best people I can go to on this issue are the people who deal with it on a daily basis – The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Here is what was reported by MarketWatch in a recent article:

“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.

Rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are expected to average 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2012, rising to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2013 and eventually rising to an average 4.4% by the fourth quarter of next year.”

If the MBA is correct, mortgage interest rates could inch up almost a full percentage point in the next year.

Where Are House Prices Headed?

I am often asked where we think home prices are headed over the next year. Recently, several groups have stepped forward and given their projections as to what level of appreciation we can expect by the end of 2013. Here is what they said:

§ Demand Institute Study: 1.75% appreciation

§ Urban Land Institute: 2%

§ Home Price Expectation Survey: 2.44%

§ National Assoc of Business Economists: 2.8%

§ Wall Street Journal’s Survey of Economists: 3.25%

All five groups are calling for home values to rise through the end of next year. However, none are projecting that we will hit historic annual appreciation levels (3.6%) that existed prior to the housing bubble.

Thinking of a Vacation or Retirement Home? Buy It Now!

When the economy was exploding in the early 2000s, many of us began to dream about purchasing that vacation home on the lake or securing a home in a more appropriate location for our retirement years. However, with the booming economy came skyrocketing house prices. Many of the homes we fell in love with quickly became out of reach financially. Perhaps we should take a second look at these same homes today.

With prices dropping by over 30% in some markets and with interest rates at historic lows, this may be the perfect time to do what we and our families have always dreamt of doing – buying that second home. Let’s look at the numbers.

Back in 2006 we may have seen the ‘perfect’ home but the $500,000 price tag was just out of reach. Today, we could probably get that home for $400,000 (if not less). We also would be financing it at the current mortgage rate instead of the rates available six years ago. The table below shows the difference in impact on our family’s finances:

 

Not every family is in the financial position to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities the current real estate market offers. But, if yours is, this may be the time for dreams to come true.  If you are thinking of buying at the beach, please email me at joyce@intracoastalrealty.com or visit my website at www.joycebarnwell.com to see what your dollars can buy.

How the Serenity Prayer Applies to Real Estate

You may be wary of either buying or selling a home in today’s market. You may feel powerless to the process. How could YOU possibly know whether the current good news about housing will continue? There is no doubt that today’s real estate market is extremely difficult to navigate. However, we want you to know that thousands of homes sold yesterday, thousands will sell today and thousands will sell each and every day from now until the end of the year.

It is totally within your power to decide whether it is the right time for you and your family to move. Even in the current market.

“How?” Let’s look at the simplicity of the famous Serenity Prayer and apply it to selling a home in today’s real estate market.

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference.”

Accept the things you cannot change

The two main concerns many talk about when discussing the housing market are:

1.      the current economy

2.      the election later this year

As an individual, there is very little you can do to impact either of those two situations (outside of voting on Election Day). The best think-tanks in the country are struggling to discover what impact each of these items have on real estate.

Have the courage to change the things you can

If you are a seller, there are plenty of buyers in the market for a home they consider priced correctly. You have to decide what the correct price is for your home if you truly want to sell. If you want your house sold, you must list it at a price a buyer will pay for it. Not a buyer from 2006 but today’s buyer who has plenty of homes from which to choose. It will take courage to sit with a real estate professional and honestly decipher the true value of your home. If you want to sell, you must have that courage.

If you are a buyer, and you believe now is the right time for your family to purchase a home – DO IT! Prices are back to pre-bubble prices and interest rates are at historic lows. That means that your monthly housing expense will be lower than any time in the last 50 years – and probably lower than your current rent payment.

The wisdom to know the difference

We all realize that the economic situation will take some time to correct. The question is whether or not it makes sense to delay moving on with your life until everything gets ‘better’. Should you not sell your home and delay reconnecting with friends and relatives that have all moved to another part of the country? Should you not buy a house and enable your kids to attend the school you have already decided is best for them? Should you spend another winter up north even though your doctor recommends you move to a climate better suited to your current medical situation?

This is where your wisdom must kick in. You already know the answers to the questions we just asked. You have the power to take back control of the situation by moving forward. The time has come for you and your family to move on and start living the life you desire. That is what is truly important.

Housing Update

The Good News Is…

the recovery of the Real Estate Market is unfolding exactly as it should and exactly as we have predicted. We are still in “Step 1” of the recovery, which basically is working to sell off the current oversupply of inventory (too many homes for sale).  This oversupply is the reason prices have not yet started to rise in many parts of the country.

The number of sales is increasing nicely and that is one way we know the recovery is taking place. When the number of homes for sale reaches a level that results in a 5-6 month supply we will then be back in a “normal” market, instead of the “buyers market” we have had over the last few years.  Once we are back in a “normal” market, prices will begin to go up at a healthy rate of about 3% per year (3% appreciation…versus the depreciation we have had).  Some other factors that let us know the recovery is under way are the fact that pending home sales (under contracts) are at their highest level since 2007 and prices on average are at 2003 levels (this shows prices have adjusted downward as a result of the oversupply).

Gaining Perspective…

on what this all means to you should be your biggest concern and that depends on your point of view.

Sellers:

This all means that your house is worth as much today as it is going to be worth for a while. Prices are not fluctuating by large amounts right now they are either up or down by very small percentages. Even when the market begins to return to normal the gains per year will be small and gradual (1% to3% annually). Some projections say that in the next 18 months there will be an increase in value of 1%… Here’s the perspective you need, if you want to wait for a year and a half for prices to go up the most you would gain is 1%, so if you have a $250,000.00 house you would be waiting 18 months for $2500.00….doesn’t seem worth waiting for, does it?  Especially when you consider what your reason for moving is in the first place. If you are moving to be close to your grandchildren is it worth waiting until they are two years old before you are closer to them just so you can have $2500.00 more dollars?  Just one example….

Buyers:

There is zero question that now is the time to buy a home. Even if you have a home to sell (see section above about Sellers). The selection of homes is incredible (Buyers benefit from the oversupply because selection is great and prices are great) Also, as of this writing, interest rates for 30 year fixed rate mortgages are 3.59% this is so low it is unheard of….this is what you would call “cheap money”!  Don’t wait until the market has recovered because if you do the selection of homes will not be as good, the prices will be higher and the interest rates will be higher….probably much higher.

Investors:

You should be rejoicing. This kind of market only comes around once in a generation or so.  Money is cheap and prices are low. The rental market is extremely strong right now, it’s certainly a “landlords” market. Houses are now cash flowing and showing very good returns on investment. Investors, if you wait, you will miss your best chance at earning the wealth that history proves is best earned in real estate.

In summary, sometimes in life you really have to step back and gain some perspective. Waiting is sometimes the right course of action…as long as you know the value of what you are giving up by waiting….

You may make 1% more or you may lose 1% less but maybe not….the one thing you know for sure is that time waits for no man (or woman) – you can never get today back.  You can never spend the time with your grandkids that you’ll miss while you are waiting on a 1% gain to your home’s value.  Don’t be the one we have all heard say….”If Only”….

The Difference Between Excellent and Perfect

Why does a buyer or seller look for a real estate professional in today’s new market reality? There’s plenty of information readily available for them to look at and analyze as they’re going through the process.

That’s just the point. Information being readily available causes confusion. That’s when people seek out professionals (whether it be a doctor, lawyer, or real estate professional) for an analysis of the information and their situation. Because of the wealth of information available, people are yearning for expert advice.

We are not afraid of those two words. Remember:

§ An expert doesn’t mean you’re going to give perfect advice.

§ An expert means you’re going to give excellent advice.

Here’s the difference:

If you go to a doctor with a serious illness, she can’t tell you how it’s all going to wind up in the end. She doesn’t know. If she did, that would be perfect advice.

However, your doctor can give you excellent advice in that she can tell you about your illness and your options, whether it be surgery or medications. She can also explain what she believes to be the best option for you based on your history, symptoms, and overall health. Ultimately, though, you’re going to make the final decision of whether you go through with the treatment plan.

Once you make that decision, your doctor will take you by the hand and walk you down the road to recovery. She will explain to you that there might be adjustments that need to be made to the treatment plan, because no one can know for certain how things will turn out. She might have to adjust your medications or increase or decrease your treatment schedule. But every step of the way, she’s there with you, helping you get to your ultimate goal. This is called excellent advice.

Similarly, if you went to an attorney, he can’t tell you how the case is going to end up or how the judge or jury will rule. That would be perfect advice. What a good attorney can do is explain your options. He might pick one or two options he believes to be the best ones to pursue. He will then leave you to make the decision on which option you want to take. Once you decide, he will help put a plan together based on the facts at hand. He will help you get to the best possible resolution of the case. And along the way, he’ll make whatever changes are needed. This is excellent advice.

My role as a real estate professional is similar to the role of the doctor and lawyer. I can’t give buyers or sellers perfect advice because I don’t know what’s going to happen—I can’t predict the future. However, I can give excellent advice based on the information and situation at hand. I can guide you through the process and help you make the necessary changes along the way. And that’s exactly what my clients deserve…and want!

Give me a call at (910) 617-7654 or email me at joyce@intracoastalrealty.com for "Excellent Advice" on real estate in Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Wilmington and all of New Hanover County.

Harvard University: Echo Boomers to Drive Recovery

The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University just released their annual State of the Nation’s Housing 2012. In the report, Harvard explained that, starting this year and continuing over the next twenty years, the echo boomers (born in the late 1970s and early 1980s) will drive the housing market.

“After several false starts, there is reason to believe that 2012 will mark the beginning of a true housing market recovery.”

As we reported in our InfoGraphic on Friday, adults under the age of 35 have decided to stay at home with their parents instead of purchase their own home. As the Harvard report states, it is not because they don’t believe in the value of homeownership:

“Although young households have increasingly opted to rent in recent years, most still aspire to homeownership. The late-2011 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey found that 86 percent of renters aged 18–34 believe they will ultimately own homes. In addition, close to 70 percent of respondents to both the Fannie Mae survey and the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes felt that it was a good time to buy. In fact, the monthly mortgage payments for the typical home currently compare more favorably to rents than at any time since the early 1970s.”

The report projected the impact of these echo boomers over the next two decades 

Over the next 10 years…

“… the most important drivers of household growth are the size and age structure of the adult population. Assuming the economic recovery is sustained in the next few years, the growth and aging of the current population alone— including the entrance of the echo boomers into adulthood— should support the addition of about 1.0 million new households per year over the next decade.”

Over the next 20 years…

“Over the next 20 years, the echo boomers have the potential to spur new home demand to an even greater extent than their parents did beginning in the 1970s. The good news for housing production is that this new generation already outnumbers that of the baby boomers at the same ages. With even a modest lift from immigration, the echo-boom generation will grow even larger as its members move into the prime household formation years.”

As housing affordability reaches historic lows, we believe more and more of the echo boomers will take the plunge into homeownership.