A Window of Opportunity for House Sellers

There has been much confusion as to where housing prices are headed. We have actually blogged on the issue recently. Today, we want to give our opinion on this subject for the short term. We believe sellers have a window of opportunity for the next 90-120 days in which to sell their homes for maximum price. We believe there will be increased downward pressure on home prices later this year and the first half of 2012.

Why renewed downward pressure?

Any item’s price is determined by ‘supply and demand’. In many parts of the country existing housing inventory is already high and actually increasing. In addition, an inventory of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) will be coming to market later this year. This inventory has been delayed for the last several months because of faulty paperwork by the banks when they originally attempted foreclosure proceedings on these homes.

Celia Chen, of Moody’s Analytics explains:

“Foreclosures are weighing on the outlook for U.S. house prices, and the slow resolution of issues surrounding the so-called robo-signing scandal is keeping distressed homes off the market”.

The New York Times also recently reported on this issue. They looked at the delays in certain states. As an example, this is what they found in New York:

“Last September, before the documentation crisis, nearly 1,500 New Yorkers lost their houses as a result of foreclosure, according to LPS. The average over the last six months: 286. That is far lower than at any point since the recession began.”

Banks are now correcting these errors.

There is evidence that the banks are getting their documentation in order and about to again increase their foreclosure repossessions. Housing Wire reported:

“Since major lenders delayed foreclosures to fix a broken process late last year, the amount of filings declined, but in May signs emerged the effect might be wearing off.”

They went on to quote RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio:

“…lenders are somewhat unevenly pushing batches of bad loans through foreclosure as they overhaul their paperwork and documentation procedures and as they determine that some local markets are able to absorb more foreclosure inventory… Foreclosure processing delays continue to mask the true face of the foreclosure situation, although there were some clues in the May numbers of what lies behind that mask.”

What will this mean to home prices?

As this inventory comes to market, it will impact prices in two ways:

1.It will provide discounted competition for buyers

2.       It will impact the appraisal values of all homes in the area

Again, we quote Celia Chen:

“It is quite possible that house prices will pick up slightly in the second or third quarter of this year, as foreclosure sales remain depressed while nondistress sales pick up…By the fourth quarter of this year, however, the distress share will rise, sending the house price index back down…

House prices will founder until early next year and start rising in earnest at the end of 2012.”

Bottom Line

There is a window of opportunity currently which sellers should take advantage of. Waiting until later this year or until next year will not guarantee a higher sales price. If anything, it probably guarantees the exact opposite.

Consumer Confidence: Which Way Is It Headed?

There is no doubt that the housing market and the economy are intertwined. The economy will get better as housing improves. Housing will regain strength as the economy improves. How is the economy actually doing? One measure is the Misery Index which combines the inflation and unemployment numbers.  According to their site: 

The misery index was initiated by economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960′s. It is simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation both create economic and social costs for a country. A combination of rising inflation and more people out of work implies a deterioration in economic performance and a rise in the misery index.

The higher the index, the weaker the economy. Here is a graph of the index over the last 18 months.

 

How does information like this impact Consumer Confidence?

Obviously, this index reflects on the factors that eat at consumer confidence. Bloomberg News reported on this saying:

Confidence among U.S. consumers dropped more than forecast in June as households contended with higher prices that are eating into incomes amid slowing job growth.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 71.8 from 74.3 in May.

Bottom Line

It will be difficult for housing to rebound while consumers are concerned about their financial futures.

Is The Economy Worse Than We Think?

We are presented with conflicting data almost daily about the “health” of the economy. And I am no economist, but I believe that I do possess some common sense.

So, here’s what I have been thinking.

It is obvious that millions of people are NOT paying their mortgage, rightly or wrongly, for their own reasons:

1. They can’t because of a job loss, death, disability or something outside of their control.

2. They won’t because it makes poor financial sense as their house is underwater.

My question is that with so many people NOT paying their mortgage, how can there be an economic recovery of any fashion? And then it hits me, people who used to spend thousands of dollars every month on their housing are spending that money now on food, clothing, vacations, gasoline, cars and alike. With the lag time between the moment of not making a mortgage payment to eviction being as long as two years, it seems logical to me that the reported economic numbers have to be inflated.

As foreclosures and short sales continue and people transition from non-paying homeowners to renters, millions of consumers will start having a housing expense again which will leave them less cash every month to buy other things. The result will be a slowing economy.

If you are a home seller, I think it means continued lower sales prices for at least the next 18 months. Price aggressively and get top dollar now!

If you are a home buyer, most of the recent data points to higher prices of everyday goods (largely because of higher energy prices), and that leads to inflation. Inflation is combated by the Federal Reserve with higher interest rates. So buy now, while the monthly carrying COST of a home is at near all time lows. Lower home prices sound good, but higher interest rates will nullify that benefit.

I have learned that “Common Sense Is Not Common Practice”.

Financial News Icons Say Now Is the Time to BUY!

We received some tough news on housing last week. Prices are still softening. There was a lot of negativity surrounding these reports. The news caused more consumers to be concerned. However, the real question is what this means to you and your family. This could actually be great news if you are buying (either as a move-up buyer or a first-time buyer).

We don’t want you to take our word for this. Instead, here are excerpts from articles published last week by two of the country’s iconic financial publications: The Wall Street Journal and Forbes Magazine.

The Wall Street Journal: Why It’s Time to Buy

“Despite all the gloom, there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy… The long-term benefits of homeownership remain very much intact. For now, at least, you can deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes—a big perk for people in higher tax brackets. You get to paint your walls any color you wish, without having to clear it with a landlord. And assuming you can buy a home for about the same price as you can rent one, buying will give you the ability one day to live rent-free. Come retirement time, a paid-off mortgage means your monthly expenses are significantly reduced, and you have a chunk of equity to play with.”

Forbes Magazine: 9 Reasons to Buy a House Now

“If you’re planning to buy a house right now, the next few months may be the best time to buy… With a convergence of the factors (mentioned in the article) all of which are favorable to the prospective home buyer, there may not be a better time to buy than right now. It’s a buyer’s market, but like everything else in life, the bargain deals won’t last.”

Bottom Line

When the Wall Street Journal and Forbes have articles saying now is the time to buy, maybe it’s time to buy

Does Your Lender WANT To Say “Yes!”?

As people go through the mortgage process today, I believe that they wonder if their lender has gone insane. Lenders ask for documentation repeatedly, constantly updating, asking for further clarification and explanation for everything. Income, credit, assets and appraisals are scrutinized at a level unseen in my 25+ years. It almost seems like they are trying to find reasons NOT to lend.

But, I assure you, that is not the case. The only way lenders can stay in business is to lend money. It is what funds the operation and pays for salaries, rent and paper clips. Lending is what creates the value of the company. No closings, no revenue, no company.  This is the case in Carolina Beach, Kure
Beach and most everywhere else in the country.

So why the perception of over-documentation and over analysis when we know the lenders have to make loans? This is the reality of a post-subprime world. Lenders got too liberal and under-documented files and forgot the primary role of underwriting (judging a borrower’s ABILITY and WILLINGNESS to repay the loan) as they approved files. And now, the pendulum has swung back to a very conservative stance. Common sense seems to have been replaced by a “Cover Your Butt Mentality”.

No one is immune. Appraisers error on the side of lower valuations and heightened criticism of a home’s condition.  Underwriters labor over pay stubs, tax returns, bank statements and credit information. Closing agents meticulously examine title and closing documents. Each of them has learned that their mistakes, miscalculations, or errors in judgment (no matter how minor) can result in a loss of their job, a bad loan, and/or monetary damages to their companies
.
So, today I just wanted to counsel home buyers. Your lender WANTS to make your loan. However, understand that they have been burned by borrowers, burned by their bad judgment, burned by moronic industry trends of the past. Lenders are going to be a little gun shy. If you can prove that you are willing and able to repay the loan, lenders have lots of money available at incredible (once-in-a-lifetime) rates. When you think your lender is asking for too much, know it’s because they want to say “yes” AND know that their decision is both a good and defendable one.

Reprinted by permission from KCM Blog

Moving Up? Doing It Now May Make Sense

An issue that may have a gigantic impact on the housing market later this year is the lowering of the conforming loan limits. Without an act of Congress, these limits will return to the lower limits that existed prior to 2008. Today, we want to shed light on this issue and what it means to someone thinking about buying either a first home or move-up home valued over $400,000 in certain markets in the country.


What is the ‘Conforming Loan Limit’?



The ‘conforming loan limit’ sets the maximum loan amount, which either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are allowed to purchase individual loans. If a loan is larger than this limit, it is considered a ‘jumbo’ loan and is automatically disqualified from being sponsored by Fannie and Freddie. It would have to be handled by the private market.


A Little History


Prior to 2008, the loan limit was $417,000. When prices started to rapidly escalate in certain regions of the country, the limit was increased. In some counties, that limit jumped to over $700,000. These new limits are scheduled to expire this October. If this happens, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may no longer be involved in these loans.


What impact will this have on a buyer?


It will cost more in mortgage payments if buyers are purchasing a home over the limit in a region where the limit changed. The Mortgage Market Note explains:


For the affected borrowers, because mortgage rates for jumbo mortgages tend to be higher than rates for conforming loans, financing costs may be higher… Over the latest year, the difference between mortgage rates for jumbo loans and jumbo-conforming mortgages has varied between about ½ and ¾ of a percentage point.


Just a ½ point increase in mortgage rate on a $500,000 mortgage means an additional $154.84 in your monthly mortgage payment; a difference greater than $55,000 over the life of a 30 year mortgage.


Which counties are impacted and to what degree?


Below is a map of the regions affected from the Mortgage Market Note. You can get a breakdown of each impacted county in this report also.




Bottom Line


If you are thinking about buying a home in the near future, you should know how this issue may impact you. Sit down with a real estate professional familiar with your area for further advice.

Homeownership: Building Family Wealth

The question facing many families making a move today is whether it makes more sense to rent or buy. We have been very upfront in discussing our unwavering belief in homeownership. It is for that reason that today we want to quote from a study issued by an institution with no ties to the real estate business or mortgaging.

The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University just released a study, America’s Rental Housing: Meeting Challenges, Building on Opportunities. The study discusses the need for a greater supply of quality rental units in America. We agree. However, there were a few nuggets of information found in the study we want everyone to know.

American’s Belief in Homeownership Has NOT Fundamentally Changed

There seems to be some feeling that homeownership has lost it’s luster and perhaps is no longer a component of the American Dream. Harvard explains:

To date, attitudes about owning have become only slightly more negative while attitudes about whether now is a good time to buy are little different than before the housing boom. In the latest Fannie Mae housing survey from October–December 2010, the vast majority of respondents—including renters—continued to believe that homeownership makes more financial sense than renting. In addition, nearly two-thirds of all renters surveyed reported their intention to buy homes in the future.

Homeownership Creates Wealth

Because prices have fallen dramatically in many parts of the country in the last five years, some are too easily dismissing homeownership’s role in building family wealth over the last century. The study explains:

In addition, renters have only a fraction of the net wealth of owners. Near the peak of the housing bubble in 2007, the median net wealth of homeowners was $234,600—about 46 times the $5,100 median for renters. Even if homeowner wealth fell back to 1995 levels, it would still be 27.5 times the median for renters.

The recent fall in prices can’t wipe out the 100 year history housing has as a good long-term investment.

Bottom Line

The study was promoting the need for the construction of more rental housing for the average American family. However, when it came to a discusion on building wealth, Harvard offered:

“And for individuals as well as businesses, owning rental properties is an avenue for wealth creation.”

And how do these individuals and businesses create that wealth. Owning the real estate and collecting rent from their tenants to offset the mortgage payments. Build your family’s wealth – not your landlord’s. We believe OWNERSHIP almost always makes the most sense.





Reprinted from KCM Blogsite