Home Prices: Supply & Demand

The real estate market continues to heat up as we head into the summer. Will this increase in demand equate to an increase in home prices? That depends. Remember, the price of any item is determined by the supply of and demand for that item at any point in time. Let’s look at the facts as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in this month’s Existing Home Sales Report:

§ Demand has strengthened, showing a 10% increase over the same month last year.

§ The supply of homes for sale is down 20.6% from the same time last year.

Because supply is down and demand is up, many believe prices should begin to increase as we finish out 2012 and head into 2013. In some markets, this analysis is correct. However, there are certain states that still need to clear through a backlog of foreclosed properties which were delayed by the court procedures in those states. The National Mortgage Settlement gave the banks a clear path for releasing these distressed properties. Therefore, in several states, there will be a new supply of discounted inventory coming to market over the next six months. Whether that increase in supply will be fully offset by the increase in demand is still unknown. If not, home prices in those markets will still be under downward pressure.

Locally, we don't expect a great increase in the number of foreclosures or distressed properties in the coming months.  There may be a few but we don't expect them to drastically effect the overall market.  We do have a reduction in the number of properties on the market and have actually seen several properties with multiple offers.  Please visit our website at www.joycebarnwell.com to see what's avaiable in our market.

Are You a Buyer Looking to Purchase a Short Sale?

It seems that there is a significant amount of confusion when it comes to purchasing a short sale. There are many misconceptions when it comes to this type of transaction, so below I have provided some information to potential buyers of short sales. If you are looking to purchase a short sale, understand that it is not the same as a normal sale and the approach is very different.  There could be several parties involved and issues that are unknown to the buyer and buyer’s agent that can affect the transaction. If you are looking to purchase a short sale here is some helpful information.

1. On average, to get a short sale approval, it can take 60-90 days.

There could be mortgage insurance and an end investor on the loan as well as the servicer, which means it has to go through three different processes. Bank of America could be the servicer on the loan but they do not actually own the loan, so, the short sale has to pass their guidelines, then go to the mortgage insurer if there is one, then to the end investor like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If you are a buyer and can’t wait at least 60-90 days for an approval and then another 30 days to go to closing, then you need to look at other houses. The worst thing you can do is tie up a house that is in a short sale with no intention of being patient while waiting for a short sale approval. Approvals can come sooner than 60 days, but industry standard is at least 60 days to get an approval or denial.

2. There is a general assumption that you can purchase a short sale for 40-50% under its listed price.  In a short sale the bank comes out and does a valuation of the property and will expect a slight discount, but will not accept a huge amount under the market value.

Hopefully, if the agent who is handling the sale is experienced, they will have already gotten an approved list price from the bank by the time you are interested in making an offer. The bank will usually be willing to negotiate on that price, but will not, in almost every case, take 40-50% off of that price. To that point, you may be able to get a reasonable deal on a short sale, though it will not be, in most cases, as much of a deal as you may be able to get on an REO (foreclosed property). Also to that point, most short sales will be in better condition than an REO. When you look at the potential repairs a comparable REO needs and the time and expense it can take to do those improvements vs. a short sale being sold at a slight market discount with improvements already made, the investment could even out. There are REO properties that can be picked up for a huge discount, but require massive repairs that a comparable short sale may not require.

3. Short sales are a very difficult process and it takes a qualified person to handle this type of transaction.

With this type of transaction it takes a very experienced agent on the listing side as well as the buying side. Make sure before you move forward on the transaction that the listing agent has ample experience dealing with these types of transactions, or you could be tied up in a contract for months that never goes to settlement. There are several different types of short sale processes and each bank’s process is somewhat different; it takes a professional who has had experience with all of these different types of short sales to help facilitate a successful transaction.

4. In most short sale transactions the properties are sold “as-is” and no repairs will be made.

Although there are some exceptions to this rule, speaking in general, short sales are sold “as-is” and no repairs will be made even if they are found during a home inspection. In most short sale transactions the bank will require both the buyer and the seller to sign an addendum that states the property is being sold “As-is” and no repairs will be made.

These are just a few short pointers for buyers who are looking to purchase a short sale as they are a reality in every market, and if you have the patience you may be able to get the home you are looking for at a discount!

Yet Another Housing Bear Turns Bull

Every day there seems to be more positive news about the real estate recovery. We attempt to give you two things in this blog:

1.      The actual data that indicates where the housing market is headed

2.      Quotes from analysts who have scrutinized this data

Today, we want to give you a quote by Ivy Zelman which appeared last week in a Wall Street Journal article Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back.

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”

Why is the quote from Zelman important? She is an industry expert consistently recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine and The Wall Street Journal as an industry-leading analyst. She has been nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years. Now, Zelman is calling a bottom and projecting prices to moderately increase in the next twelve months.

Again, another expert on housing is calling a bottom; another bear turns bull.

Correct Planning for Your Mortgage Application

With good preparation, most things are easier. That works in mortgages too! Today, I want to give you some ideas that can make your mortgage experience less painful.

Income Items:

1.       Gather your documents. Today, many people will have to produce 2 years’ complete tax returns, including W2′s, 1099′s, K1′s, and all the schedules, as well as a month’s worth of pay stubs.

2.      Be prepared to explain them. Deductions in your returns and your pay stubs may impact the income your lender will use to qualify you which, in turn, has a big impact on the loan you will get.

3.      Have a breakdown of base pay versus overtime for both your pay stubs and 2 years’ W2′s. Lenders treat overtime (and bonus income) differently than your base pay. Be prepared to explain any changes over the last few years because your loan officer will ask you about it.

Asset Items:

1.      Start accumulating your bank statements. Lenders look back 3 months from when you sign your contract of sale.

2.      You will have to explain any and all large deposits (which are defined as deposits greater than your regular pay check) because lenders want to make sure you haven’t taken out any new loans that aren’t on your credit report.

3.      Avoid any significant cash deposits. However, if you did have a cash deposit, understand that the lender will have you source it (a bill of sale and DMV receipt for that motorcycle, for example).

4.      If you will be receiving a gift, consult your loan officer on how to document it (from the donor’s ability to how you deposit it).

Credit Items:

1.       Ask your loan officer to run your credit and go over it with them. Believe it or not, most credit reports contain errors. Best to identify them and get working on correcting them as early as possible.

2.      Do what you can to pay down your balances to under 30% of available credit to help you get the best score possible.

3.      Do NOT close accounts or pay off collection accounts without discussing it with your loan officer. Either one of these logical moves can actually have a negative impact on your score.

When buying a home, remember the Boy Scout motto, “Be prepared”. Following these suggestions will make your loan approval easier and less stressful.

Please Calm Down – The Market IS Recovering

It didn’t take long for the naysayers in real estate to jump all over the National Association of Realtors’ Existing Sales Report which was released last week. It is true that sales were down 2.6% from the previous month. However, monthly variations should not be the determining factor in deciding where the market is going. For example, in the same report, NAR explained that sales WERE UP 5.2% over last March’s numbers.

The experts should look at the key underlying data that truly determines where the market will be heading. Here is what leading economists in the housing industry are saying:

Paul Diggle, property economist, Capital Economics

“March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the housing market, coupled with a gradual improvement in the pace of the economic recovery, should drive a rise in home sales later this year….It is possible that the pattern within the quarter has been driven by the weather, with falls in the most recent two months reflecting a degree of payback after January’s gain.” 

Doug Duncan, chief economist, Fannie Mae

“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”

Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics, Moody’s

“The residential property market is recovering, as the factors underlying demand and supply strengthen. Even after accounting for unusual seasonal patterns brought on by the unusually warm winter, conditions have not been this strong since the government ended homebuyer tax credits in 2010.”

Mark Vitner, senior economist, Wells Fargo

“Existing home sales dropped 2.6 percent, but are up 5.2 percent from a year ago. While existing sales are down for the second consecutive month, we are likely continuing to see payback from increases earlier this year. That said, we could see one more month of disappointing data, but we still contend the recent declines are not indicative of the trend. Stabilization will become more apparent once we return to normal weather.”

Mark Fleming, chief economist, CoreLogic

“Since the peak in home prices, mortgages rates have declined and affordability has risen dramatically. Housing affordability is at levels not seen since prior to the early 1990s …While real estate professionals often say that “now is a good time to buy,” it is clear today that April 2006 was probably not a good time to buy, while now may well be the time.”

What It Means To Be an ‘EXPERT’ in Real Estate

If you are either buying or selling a home in today’s market, you need a real estate expert. However, we must realize what the term ‘expert’ actually means. An expert in any area cannot give perfect advice as no one can predict the future. But they can give excellent advice based on their insight into their field.

If you go to an attorney with a legal challenge, he/she will look over your case and give you your options. They realize they cannot guarantee the outcome of any of the options. Still, they give the best advice possible and allow you to decide the option with which you feel most comfortable. They then will put together a strategy which hopefully will bring about the most favorable conclusion.

If you go to a doctor with a serious ailment, he/she will give you your options and work with you to develop the best treatment program. They cannot guarantee any program’s success. They will, however, monitor your progress and adjust your treatments or medications. They will stand next to you until the best result is achieved.

Real estate is no different. A true real estate professional will understand your options and simply and effectively explain them to you and your family. Once you chose an option, they will strategize a plan to help you accomplish your goals. They will standby you as the process evolves and will help you make the necessary adjustments if necessary.

They cannot see the future any better than doctors or attorneys and thus their advice will never be perfect. However, just like those other professionals, an expert agent will give you excellent advice that will bring about the best possible outcome.

Real Estate: Sales Increasing. Prices – Not Yet.

In yesterday’s blog post, we explained that many experts believe home sales will increase in 2012. Today, we want to make sure that our readers realize that it will still take time for prices to begin to appreciate. Pricing is about supply and demand. Though demand is increasing, there is still a large supply of homes for sale in many markets and the National Mortgage Settlement will probably mean over a million distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) will enter the market this year. Two major surveys spoke to this point in the past week.

The Home Price Expectation Survey asked 104 leading industry experts where they thought prices would be at the end of 2012. The average of those opinions showed that the experts believe prices will depreciation by about one percent (.72%).

The Urban Land Institute released results from their survey also. In their report, 38 leading real estate economists/analysts, representing major real estate investment and research firms, felt that prices would remain flat throughout the year.

Demand will increase dramatically this year. However, it won’t drive prices upward because of the supply of inventory for sale in most markets.